Fashion isn’t just about trends, it’s an economic crystal ball. Well, in theory.
It might be hard to imagine that lowering hemlines or the return of flats has anything to do with your cash (unless you’re spending $$$ on the latest trends, that is) but there are several theories that hypothesise a connection between fluctuations in the economy and our wardrobe and beauty cabinet.
You’ve likely heard chatter on social media about the Hemline Index, the Lipstick Effect and the High Heel Index — but what exactly are they? Scroll on for the break down.
Related: Luxury Is Getting Loud Again, Baby
What is the Hemline Index?
If you’re wondering why those Miu Miu micro-minis have suddenly been replaced with calf-length midi skirts, blame the economy.
In 1926, economist George Taylor proposed that skirt hemlines rise and fall in accordance with the health of the economy and stock market.
The Hemline Index suggests that through economic booms our skirt hemlines get shorter (hello mini skirts!) and in contrast, during periods of recission they are longer (enter, maxi skirts). The idea is that during times of economic prosperity, women feel confident and secure, wanting to show off more. However, during hardship the hemlines theoretically lengthen, reflecting uncertainty.
If you take a look at history, the roaring 20’s was the pinnacle of flappers dancing their way through economic prosperity in short dresses. But with a quick glance at the Great Depression, the opposite was clear, with conservative skirts coming back into fashion. Hemlines rose back up in the late 1930’s, only to be followed by the release of Christian Dior’s signature long, voluminous skirts in 1947; the ultimate subtle foreshadowing to the recession of 1949. Coincidence? We don’t think so.
Instagram fashion analyst Data But Make It Fashion reported that the popularity of maxi skirts is up 393 per cent this month… we’ll just leave that there.
What is the Lipstick Effect?
There is always a perfectly reasonable excuse to buy another lip product, but if you need another, blame your shopping habits on the Lipstick Effect. Originally coined by Estee Lauder’s, Leonard Lauder, the theory is that consumers seek small indulgences to provide happiness during economic turmoil. They can’t splurge on typically larger luxury goods, but they can dabble in the extremities of $40 for a lipstick (okay, guilty!)
Estee Lauder saw a direct example of the effect following the 9/11 attacks, when lipstick sales soared, and yet again during the 2008 financial crisis. Even when masks were ruining a good lippie moment during Covid-19, beauty brands reported an increase in eye product sales — because if it couldn’t be our lips it had to be the hottest new eyeliner or mascara.
With inflation tugging at our wallets today, expect the revival of more noticeable lip colours — from bold reds to darker pinks and deep browns — as the must-have affordable luxury (and the only financial security we can afford) to pop back into the trend cycle.
The High Heel Index.
Turns out, it does matter which pair of high heels you’re wearing today (told you).
Another theory often discussed alongside the Hemline Index is the High Heel Index, which may seem antithetical at a first glance.
The High Heel index, proposed by researchers at IBM, says women turn to sky-high heels during rock bottom economic downturns. Why? As an apparent form of escapism in which our heels get taller because nothing gives the economy a big middle finger like towering over your financial problems.
It’s 2008 again (sorry), and platforms and stilettos are everywhere, but fast forward a little, and as the economy stabilised, flats, sneakers and lower shoes reigned supreme.
In the post-pandemic, inflation-ridden world, heels have started to pop back into fashion, with kitten styles perhaps preceding a resurgence of taller shoes.
So, What's Next?
Fashion may be tricky, but if history is an indicator, the next economic shift is already hanging in our closet. With longer skirts in abundance, spikes in bolder lip colours and creep back of higher footwear, the future of our bank accounts aren’t looking too bright.
The next time you’re in your short skirt, high heels and red lip, remember that you could possibly be making a stock market prediction.
Either way, move over finance bros, let our wardrobes do the talking.
